- Low tide at 3:30 pm, 26th of January. Height 0.37 metres.
- High tide at 8:50 am, 27th of January. Height 1.31 metres.
- Assumption: EPIRB thrown in water around 2:30 am.
- Distance Four Winds to Maning Beach ~1200 metres.
- Direction Four Winds to Maning Beach ~North to South.
- Morning 27th of January, light southwest breeze.
- Weather clear and sunny. Water only a ripple.
- 8:30 am – police vessel Freycinet begins grid search.
- EPIRB not seen in the water from Freycinet.
- 8:50 am – high tide. Freycinet at Maning Beach.
- EPIRB not seen on Maning Beach from Freycinet.
- Assumption: EPIRB washed ashore on high tide.
- EPIRB not seen on Maning Beach by casual visitors.
- EPIRB is found on Maning Beach around 2 to 2:30 pm.
- Photograph taken of where EPIRB was found.
- Impossible for EPIRB thrown in the water around 2:30 am to float 1200 metres (as the crow flies)
and wash up on Maning Beach 8:50 am high tide.
- Impossible for the EPIRB to float from Four Winds to Maning Beach, that is, North to South, with
a southwest breeze cutting across its path.
- Because Maning Beach faces northeast, the southwest breeze would blow the EPIRB away from the shore.
- No current flows from the Four Winds anchorage to Maning Beach.
- The 1.31 metres high tide could not reach the rocks on which the EPIRB was found.
- EPIRB put on Maning Beach by hand, not by the tide.