Basics

  • Low tide at 3:30 pm, 26th of January. Height 0.37 metres.
  • High tide at 8:50 am, 27th of January. Height 1.31 metres.
  • Assumption: EPIRB thrown in water around 2:30 am.
  • Distance  Four Winds to Maning Beach ~1200 metres.
  • Direction Four Winds to Maning Beach ~North to South.
  • Morning 27th of January, light southwest breeze.
  • Weather clear and sunny. Water only a ripple.
  • 8:30 am – police vessel Freycinet begins grid search.
  • EPIRB not seen in the water from Freycinet.
  • 8:50 am – high tide. Freycinet at Maning Beach.
  • EPIRB not seen on Maning Beach from Freycinet.
  • Assumption: EPIRB washed ashore on high tide.
  • EPIRB not seen on Maning Beach by casual visitors.
  • EPIRB is found on Maning Beach around 2 to 2:30 pm.
  • Photograph taken of where EPIRB was found.

Findings

  • Impossible for EPIRB thrown in the water around 2:30 am to float 1200 metres (as the crow flies) and wash up on Maning Beach 8:50 am high tide.
  • Impossible for the EPIRB to float from Four Winds to Maning Beach, that is, North to South, with a southwest breeze cutting across its path.
  • Because Maning Beach faces northeast, the southwest breeze would blow the EPIRB away from the shore.
  • No current flows from the Four Winds anchorage to Maning Beach.
  • The 1.31 metres high tide could not reach the rocks on which the EPIRB was found.
  • EPIRB put on Maning Beach by hand, not by the tide.

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